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Marktbericht Asien Januar 2012
Fueled by government investments and strong domestic consumption, Asia-Pacific economies continue to grow robustly. Growth will be challenging in 2012 amid the weak global economic environment, but the region’s resiliency should enable it to weather any slowdown.
Executive Summary
Macro Themes
- Although China’s economy is expected to decelerate in 2012, we believe the government is committed to meaningful growth, especially with a change of leadership scheduled this year. The challenge will be to boost domestic consumption among the country’s 1.3 billion population. That would compensate for the anticipated slow growth in exports, as demand from the US and Europe will likely be subdued.
- Asia’s employment market expanded in 2011, resulting in lower unemployment rates. Hiring in 2012 may be muted due to economic volatility, but the long-term employment uptrend should remain intact and produce higher household income.
- The region’s inflation rate was stubbornly high in the second half of 2011. Inflation is likely to level off in 2012, as consumer demand will become more price sensitive given the softening economy.
- Central banks are likely to ease their monetary policies at a measured pace in 2012. While the cost of debt will gradually fall, lenders are likely to underwrite more conservative terms given the soft economic prospects.
Implications and Outlook for Commercial Real Estate
- Market fundamentals will mostly move in a positive direction in the region this year, but the uncertain global economic backdrop has prompted us to moderate our outlook. We have lowered our 2012 office rental forecasts in some cities, such as Hong Kong and Singapore.
- Asia’s office markets had a good run for most of 2011, capitalizing on the robust demand. However, demand tapered off in the fourth quarter as external market uncertainty weighed on market sentiment. The slowdown in hiring, especially among financial institutions, may continue in 2012, thereby reducing demand for additional office space. Lower demand will - force landlords to be more realistic about their expectations for rent increases in 2012.
The region’s retail market should be resilient in 2012, supported by robust spending in the intra-regional tourism industry and thriving domestic consumption.
