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Marktbericht Europa Feb08
As anticipated, most of Europe’s economies are entering a period of slower economic growth. Even while the fallout from the credit market turmoil has yet to be fully determined, banks have imposed tougher lending and pricing conditions on both businesses and households as they look to reprice risk.
Executive Summary
- While GDP growth across most of Europe picked up in 3Q, early indicators for 4Q suggest that most of Europe’s economies are now entering a period of sustained sub-trend growth.
- What long-term effect the credit turmoil will likely have on economic activity remains unclear. Nonetheless banks have tightened lending standards as part of a general repricing of risk, the result being a contraction in property investment volume.
- Investment transaction volume across Western Europe fell significantly in 4Q, and there is growing evidence that the slowdown is leading to a sharp but short correction in capital values and a general flight to quality.
- Although occupier fundamentals remain favorable, an expected increase in new supply should lead to slower rental growth in 2008. This is particularly the case in sectors exposed to the recent deceleration in consumer spending growth.
- Generalizing market performance across Europe remains difficult, particularly as tipping points grow increasingly variable. Overall, markets in Central and Eastern Europe are expected to post much stronger rental growth than the more mature markets of Western Europe throughout 2008.
