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Marktbericht Europa Januar 2012
The near-term outlook for European economic growth has deteriorated as governments struggle to reassure markets that they have a credible and long-term solution to the sovereign debt crisis.
Executive Summary
Macro Themes
- The near-term outlook for European economic growth has deteriorated as governments struggle to reassure markets that they have a credible and long-term solution to the sovereign debt crisis.
- We continue to expect that eurozone policymakers will deliver the necessary measures to keep the currency area intact. With governments tightening fiscal policy, central banks will likely continue whatever policy easing is required to keep the economic recovery on track.
Implications for Commercial Real Estate
- Quarterly investment activity is expected to remain below trend throughout the first half of 2012 as the economic outlook andtougher financing conditions impact investor demand.
- European banks will continue to retreat from the market as deteriorating loan books and tougher regulatory controls take their toll. What’s more, alternative sources of financing are unlikely to fill the funding gap.
- Property values are under pressure, especially outside of prime real estate in North Europe. Even so many prime markets are starting to look expensive as a result of the weak take-up of space in the fourth quarter and the subsequent downgrading of rental growth expectations. Yields nudged out in a few markets in 4Q11.
- A weak development pipeline remains the key upside risk to rental growth. Take-up is still mostly about occupiers cutting costs and consolidating operations. However, if firms delay taking up space, there could be a strong pick-up in demand once the economic outlook improves.
- Investors are set to remain cautious over the coming months with a renewed focus on income security. Spreads between prime property yields and triple-A rated bonds remain wide. Attractive options in this environment include lending on real estate and buying in the core supply-constrained markets in North Europe.
