Marktbericht USA Jan08

Real estate investors face a much more challenging environment in 2008 than they have in many years.

Executive Summary

• The ongoing credit market troubles and housing market downturn continue to cloud the near-term outlook for the commercial real estate market.
  
• Transaction and leasing activity have slowed noticeably since this time last year and will remain relatively quiet until the credit market thaws and the near-term trajectory of the economy becomes clearer.
  
• Although the taps controlling the flow of capital from some of the most potent sources have been turned off, private debt and equity remain available for a wide range of commercial real estate investments, including new development.
  
• The U.S. REIT market faces strong headwinds in the near term. With most REITs trading at steep discounts to net asset value (NAV), however, REIT shares should be attractive to long-term investors seeking exposure to commercial real estate.
  
• With higher capital costs and slower near-term earnings growth, cap rates will rise and commercial property values will likely fall in 2008. The magnitude of the value declines and duration of the weakness will vary widely, however.