Marktbericht USA Jan09

Optimism is in short supply in the commercial real estate market.

Executive Summary

• The commercial real estate market has followed the larger economy into a
  downturn that is likely to last through 2009 and possibly into 2010. With
  unemployment rising, consumer spending falling and home prices
  dropping, the recession will impact all sectors of the real estate market.
  
• It is not yet clear when commercial mortgage debt will be readily
  available. The CMBS market is out of the picture and traditional lending
  sources are trying to preserve capital. The lack of reasonably priced debt
  has made it difficult to complete transactions.
  
• Tarred with their association with financial firms and use of mortgage
  debt, shares of U.S. REITs fell amid unprecedented volatility in 2008. The
  sector should gain in 2009, but remains subject to the performance of the
  economy and the debt capital markets.
  
• After falling to historical lows of roughly 5.4% in 2008, cap rates are likely
  to return to levels more in line with the 7.8% National Council of Real
  Estate Fiduciaries (NCREIF) historical average. Combined with declining
  net operating income, property values will drop sharply from their peaks.
  
• With distress comes potential for opportunities. The disconnect between
  the pricing of public and private real estate, and equity and debt, creates
  inefficiencies that can be exploited by investors with available capital.