Marktbericht USA Januar 2012

A year-end improvement in economic indicators gives rise to hope that sustainable economic expansion will finally take root. However, markets
remain wary of another shock caused by the unresolved sovereign debt crisis in Europe and political infighting in the build-up to the 2012 election.

Executive Summary

Macro Themes

• The likelihood is that the recovery will continue at a moderate pace for another year or more until a full-fledged recovery takes root.
• Reasons for optimism on the economy include the fairly robust December job growth, especially in the private sector; continued strong corporate
  profits and balance sheets; pent-up demand for consumer products; low interest rates and inflation; and progress in deleveraging that has
  reduced the debt burden of families and corporations.
• The good news is tempered by factors that include persistently high unemployment rates; ongoing volatility in financial markets; weak growth in
  personal income; the struggling housing market; the high public debt burden; and tight credit conditions, especially for small businesses.

Implications & Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

• Demographics and pent-up demand will drive strong demand for apartments for several years, while demand for hotels and self-storage units
  should continue to grow at a solid pace.
• Office and warehouse fundamentals will see more modest improvement, while retail will struggle with high vacancies, weak store expansion and
  competition from online retailers.
• Commercial real estate values will hold up, and even move higher for core assets, as investor demand for income and security remains strong.
  Europe’s troubles have led a growing number of non-US investors to seek safety in core assets in gateway markets in the US.
• Development will remain at historic low levels in all segments. Apartment development is increasing, but it may take another year or two before a
  meaningful number of units can be completed.
  • Life companies and agency lenders are expected to originate record levels of debt, which is good news for class A assets and apartments.
  Lending by CMBS programs and commercial banks stalled late in 2011 due to the volatile financial markets, and will remain skittish early in 2012.

• 
  Marktbericht USA Januar 2012
  299 Kb // PDF