Marktbericht USA Oct08

After many years during which capital and space market forces have helped drive investment performance and attract a larger and more diverse investor base, the U.S. commercial real estate market faces serious challenges on both fronts.

Executive Summary

• The dramatic deterioration in the capital markets and increasing weakness in the overall economy will bleed into the commercial real estate markets. All sectors of the real estate market will be affected.
  
• The unprecedented nature of the current banking crisis makes it difficult to come up with a historical analogy from which to devise a solution or draw conclusions.
  
• Few banks are willing to lend and are instead focused on shoring up their balance sheets and conserving capital. Any debt that is available is expensive. This will dramatically decrease construction starts.
  
• The U.S. REIT market remains extremely volatile. Although REITs offer attractive dividend yields and generally are trading at sizable discounts to net asset value, the near-term risks for the REIT market as a whole remain weighted to the downside.
  
• Other than distressed situations, transaction activity in the commercial real estate market will remain depressed until the broader markets regain their footing. As a result, property values will continue to weaken, though a broad consensus on market values will not emerge until transaction activity normalizes.